Alliances in Fuel Cell Power Train Development - A Future Perspektive for Sustainable Mobility

摘要

For the realisation of the effective application and cost effectiveness of fuel cell power trains in automotive industry, it will be necessary to either a) produce a large number of vehicles, b) reduce the production costs by permanent process optimisation, or c) introducing new materials, to reach the break-even-point and competitive position to combustion engines. The targeted launch of fuel cell vehicles can lead to a faster paced development trend, if state or society balance out the marginally economic disadvantages by subsidies or price compensation of this low emission and resource-sparing propulsion technology in favour of sustainability. Currently automotive manufacturers specify the costs for fuel cell power trains between 9000-20000 /kW. These costs will be assumed for a number of prototypes underneath 50 vehicles. For marketability these costs should be reduced to the level of present-day conventional power trains, with costs on an average of 50 /kW. Following experience curves, adopted from the empiric cost developments of preceded energy technologies a cost prognosis for the launch of fuel cell power trains is undertaken. For the launch of a new series of vehicles 1-2 bn. are scheduled in the automotive industry. Certainly this amount of money is not enough to launch fuel cell power train as a new propulsion system, if each company makes it in solo effort. The questions that this paper considers are which effects have alliances on the development of fuel cell power trains and how experience curve effects have inducement building alliances. The results of applying a game theory model will be shown, which quantifies the influence of experience curve and network effects on the motivation for building an alliance for developing a marketable fuel cell power train.