Development of a predictive model describing the growth of Yersinia enterocolitica in Camembert-type cheese

摘要

Behaviour of Yersinia enterocolitica in mould-ripened Camembert-type cheese during storage at temperature range 3-15 ℃ was evaluated and mathematically described. The Baranyi and Gompertz models were adjusted to the results of the study to calculate the growth rate (GR) and lag time (LT) for Y. enterocolitica at each temperature. Goodness of fit was assessed by calculating the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and mean square error (MSE). Square root models were constructed which described the relations between GR, LT and applied storage temperature. The secondary models were mathematically validated based on the results generated by ComBase Predictor. Moreover, generated models were validated using external, independent data from ComBase database. Based on this, it was found that the square root models of Ratkowsky constructed on GR that were determined based on the Baranyi and Roberts model most accurately described the behaviour of Y. enterocolitica in Camembert-type cheese during storage under refrigerated conditions.