The EU-Russia Energy Relationship: Will the Yukos Decision Trigger a Fundamental Reassessment in Moscow?

摘要

At first sight the Energy Charter Treaty arbitration decision in favour of the Yukos shareholders in Hulley Enterprises Ltd v Russian Federation appears to be the pyrrhic victory of pyrrhic victories. Even if the shareholders win on the final merits part of the claim made at least two years ago, any decision is unenforceable. This lack of enforceability was underlined by the recent Russian withdrawal from provisional application of the Charter. However, on closer examination in fact all is not lost for the shareholders or the ECT. The Russian energy strategy has encouraged acquisition of foreign downstream assets across Europe by state-owned companies that could be subject to seizure. In addition, new cheap alternative sources of gas threaten Gazprom's business model, forcing the Russian state to promote foreign investment and seek access to cheap transit routes. Both measures require access to the provisions of the ECT.