A probabilistic method for the evaluation of the performance and the reliability of wind-diesel energy systems

摘要

This paper describes a probabilistic method for predicting the performance and the reliability of autonomous wind-diesel energy system based on statis- tical data of the system load and the wind speed. Expected annual wind and diesel energy production as well As fuel consumption and cost are calculated. The system Energy (EUE) are also computed. In order to retain Acceptable service reliability, the operation of the Wind-diesel system is constrained by the requirement that The wind generation must not exceed a certain percentage Of the system load.