Exposure Gone 'Wild': A Call for Rational Exposure Scenarios

摘要

In my experience, most makers of "risk-based" decisions (regulators, responsible parties, risk managers) really do not know much about the nuts and bolts of what passes for a risk assessment. They know there is some threshold (i.e., criteria, guideline, standard, benchmark, etc.) they should not allow to be crossed. They know a story (i.e., an exposure scenario) for how it might be crossed. And they know that being below it is good, while being beyond it is bad (if not for the public's health then possibly for their career). With this level of understanding, their decision is simply to do what's necessary to stay below that threshold. Doing so might be costly and burdensome, and it might mean giving up certain benefits (Ginsberg and Toal 2009). But decision-makers are willing to bear those costs, and lose those benefits, because they (or their constituencies) really believe that if they do not, a bad outcome will happen.