An Optimization-model-based Interactive Decision Support System For Regional Energy Management Systems Planning Under Uncertainty

摘要

In this study, an interactive decision support system (UREM-IDSS) has been developed based on an inexact optimization model (UREM, University of Regina Energy Model) to aid decision makers in planning energy management systems. Optimization modeling, scenario development, user interaction, policy analysis and visual display are seamlessly integrated into the UREM-IDSS. Uncertainties in energy-related parameters are effectively addressed through the interval linear programming (ILP) approach, improving the robustness of the UREM-IDSS for real-world applications. Thus, it can be used as an efficient tool for analyzing and visualizing impacts of energy and environmental policies, regional/community sustainable development strategies, emission reduction measures and climate change in an interactive, flexible and dynamic context. The Region of Waterloo has been selected to demonstrate the applicability and capability of the UREM-IDSS. A variety of scenarios (including a reference case) have been identified based on different energy management policies and sustainable development strategies for in-depth analysis of interactions existing among energy, socio-economy, and environment in the Region. Useful solutions for the planning of energy management systems have been generated, reflecting complex tradeoffs among energy-related, environmental and economic considerations. Results indicate that the UREM-IDSS can be successfully used for evaluating and analyzing not only the effects of an individual policy scenario, but also the variations between different scenarios compared with a reference case. Also, the UREM-IDSS can help tackle dynamic and interactive characteristics of the energy management system in the Region of Waterloo, and can address issues concerning cost-effective allocation of energy resources and services. Thus, it can be used by decision makers as an effective technique in examining and visualizing impacts of energy and environmental policies, regional/community development strategies, emission reduction measures, and climate change within an integrated and dynamic framework.