Breaking automotive modal lock-in: a choice modelling study of Jakarta commuters

摘要

The automotive domination in high-growth Asian conurbations is typically seen as the outcome of conventional market forces driven by income and aspirational consumer motivations. Proposed here is a more complex explanation, where path-dependent growth and associated positive feedback mechanisms underlie a staged process that evolves into a non-Pareto efficient form of market failure, inflicting a decline in the quality of urban life. Positive feedback mechanisms and imperfect information create 'automotive modal lock-in' (AML) forming a barrier to possible superior alternatives. This study uses a choice modelling experiment with Jakarta commuters to test the role of negative externalities in modal choice, measuring the extent to which commuters may be willing to trade off automotive use for a reduction in negative externalities. The results present an indication of how the process of AML reversal could begin.