Prediction of Travel Time in Urban District Based on State Equation

摘要

The presentation of travel time information to drivers is one of the important roles of information systems concerned with road traffic. This paper proposes a method for predicting the travel time in urban districts using travel time data from the small sections which make up a route. The forecasting model consists of past time series data on the travel times in the small sections. The travel time for the route in the near future and its accuracy are estimated by using a state equation of the forecasting model. The validity of the method is verified using real data. Validation showed that the prediction error was approximately 2.5 minutes. Generally, for 50 minutes of travel time, it is desirable that the prediction error be within 5 minutes. Therefore, this result appears satisfactory for practical use.