A Dynamic Harmonic Regression Approach to Power System Modal Identification and Prediction

摘要

Time series models provide a powerful tool to extract nonstationary features from measured data. In this article, a statistical framework based upon a dynamic harmonic regression model for examining modal behavior is provided. In this model, temporal patterns in measured data are modeled within a stochastic state space setting. Estimates of the states or time-varying parameters are then obtained using an optimal estimation method based on the Kalman filter. Techniques to estimate future values of the unobserved signal are also analyzed. The widely applicable technique is illustrated on both simulated and measured data. Factors that affect the performance of the method are discussed, including the effects of non-linear trends, data quality, and sampling design. Connections with other modal identification methods are also investigated.