The law of small(er) numbers

摘要

"Naughty or nice" is not a discus-sion investment bankers have with Santa before Christmas but one they have with their bosses early in the new year. The haggling usually opens with the boss saying what a tough year it has been and the bankers, often experienced traders and dealmakers, talking about how valuable they are. This year's negotiations will be unusually tense. At stake will not simply be pay, an issue complicated by the introduction on January ist of a bonus cap in Europe, but also jobs.