Forecast Overview

摘要

The final estimate for Q1 2019 confirmed quarterly GDP growth of 0.5%. But this was flattered by some particularly noisy' data around the turn of the year and boosted by precautionary stockbuilding by firms seeking to guard against the potential supply-chain disruption that could arise from a no-deal Brexit, This factor temporarily boosted manufacturing output, but then reversed in April as firms ran down their inventories. With the impact compounded by some car producers bringing forward their regular summer plant shutdowns, GDP fell 0.4% m/m in April.