Water resources stress assessment and risk early warning-a case of Hebei Province China

摘要

In most parts of China, water resources development and utilization has reached or exceeded the international warning level, especially in the northern arid and semi-arid regions, the serious water stress have aroused worldwide concerns. Many issues of water resources are closely and some inseparably associated with human activities. In this study, the water footprint (WF) and related indicators were applied as comprehensive indicators to assess real water use by humans from the consumption perspective. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model (FCE) was used for the evaluation in its role to assess water stress. And the index system of water stress assessment including four aspects, namely water supply and demand balance, socio-economy, agricultural production and ecological environment was established. Taking the case of Hebei province of China where there is serious conflict between water supply and demand, water stress assessment of all eleven administrative areas for the period 2000-2013 was analyzed. The findings showed that water stress was denoted by three levels, namely high water stress (red zone), general water stress (yellow zone) and low water stress (blue zone), which lays the foundation of the further research on water risk warning. According to the results of water stress assessment and the socio-economic development trends of Hebei, a Markov Chain Risk Warning model was built to describe the risk state of water system and to predict the transition probability of future states. This was intended to focus on the possibility that water stress levels might change into higher water stress level. The current study aims at extending earlier research by making a first step from water footprint estimation towards water stress assessment and providing reference for scientific management of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.