MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF CONTAMINATED ENVIRONMENTS IN MAINLAND CHINA ON SEASONAL HFMD INFECTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL BENEFIT OF A PULSE VACCINATION STRATEGY

摘要

Substantial and increasing outbreaks of EV71-related hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred recently in mainland China with serious consequences for child health. The HFMD pathogens can survive for long periods outside the host in suitable conditions, and hence indirect transmission via free-living pathogens in the environment cannot be ignored. We propose a novel mathematical model of both periodic direct transmission and indirect transmission followed by incorporation of an impulsive vaccination strategy. By applying Floquet theory and the comparison theorem of impulsive differential equations, we obtained a threshold parameter which governs the extinction or the uniform persistence of the disease. The rate, frequency and timing of pulse vaccination were found to affect the basic reproduction number and the number of infected individuals significantly. In particular, frequent vaccination with a high coverage rate leads to declines in the basic reproduction number. Moreover, for a given rate of vaccination or frequency, numerical studies suggested that there was an optimal time (September, just before the start of new school terms) when the basic reproduction number and hence new HFMD infections could be minimised. Frequent high intensity vaccinations at a suitable time (e.g. September) and regular cleaning of the environment are effective measures for controlling HFMD infections.