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Testing the long-run neutrality and superneutrality of money in a developing country: Evidence from Iran

机译:在一个发展中国家测试的长期中立和超级性质:来自伊朗的证据

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This paper investigates the long-run money neutrality (LMN) and long-run money superneutrality (LMSN) hypothesis for both the industry sector and the entire Iranian economy by using the data of 1979–2018 and applying Fisher and Seater's (1993) ARIMA framework. Conventional unit root tests, including PP, ADF, and KPSS, are applied to determine the order of integration of variables; however, since the structural break in variables is not considered in these methods, Lee-Strazicich and Zivot-Andrews methods are also applied to take it into account. The findings of money neutrality investigation in the Iranian industry sector show that when the monetary base is the criterion, money neutrality is confirmed, but when liquidity and money volume are the criteria, money neutrality is rejected. Also, the neutrality of money is accepted considering all three monetary aggregates (M1, M2, and M3) in investigating the entire economy. It is not feasible to examine the superneutrality of money since unit root tests confirm that all the variables are I (1).?As there is more than one structural break in the time series of the study, applying the Lee-Strazicich unit root test has made the results more reliable.?Neutrality of money testing is not efficient in the case of cointegration between model variables. Thus, the Gregory-Hansen test, which investigates cointegration considering the structural break, is applied.?The results of this research can guide policy-makers.?Non-neutrality of money in the industrial sector shows the positive effect of monetary policy on this sector when considering the probability of destructive effects on other sectors.
机译:本文通过使用1979 - 2018年的数据,调查了行业部门和整个伊朗经济的长期资金中立(LMN)和长期的金钱超级风味(LMSN)假设,并应用Fisher和Seaer(1993)Arima框架。常规单位根测试包括PP,ADF和KPSS,用于确定变量的集成顺序;然而,由于在这些方法中不考虑变量中的结构突变,因此李 - 施联和Zivot-Andrews方法也被应用于将其考虑在内。伊朗工业部门的金钱中立调查结果表明,当货币基础是标准时,确认金钱中立,但当流动性和金钱量是标准时,拒绝金额中立。此外,考虑到调查整个经济的所有三种货币骨(M1,M2和M3),接受金钱的中性。检查金钱的超级性是不可行的,因为单位根测试确认所有变量是i(1)。在研究的时间序列中有一个以上的结构休息,应用李施泰单位根系测试已经使结果更加可靠。在模型变量之间的协整的情况下,金钱测试的人数不高。因此,应用了考虑结构突破的协整的格雷戈里汉森试验。本研究的结果可以指导政策 - 制造商。在工业部门的货币上的货币展示了货币政策对此的积极影响在考虑对其他部门的破坏性影响可能性时,部门。

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