Analysis of possibilities for achieving targets of Russian Road Safety Strategy

摘要

The article discusses the analysis of the possibilities for assessing the achievement of the targets of the Road Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation for 2018–2024. The ambitious goal of Russia to reach the level of Human Risk of 4 RA (road accident) fatalities/100,000 people by 2024 today seems almost impossible and requires a triple reduction in the annual number of RA fatalities within 5 years. This is evidenced by the experience of other world leaders in road traffic safety: it took them 11 to 39 years to solve this issue. Moreover, the analysis of the Strategy does not make it clear what means should be used to solve this issue. In this regard, the entropy analysis used by the authors is the very tool that makes it possible to consider in detail the relations between the elements of the cause-and-effect mechanism of road accident rate formation and assess the influence of each of these elements on the overall final picture of road traffic safety. The article provides examples of three possible scenarios for road accident rate formation in Russia in 2024, and these predictive examples show that without a qualitative breakthrough in road traffic safety technologies, a significant increase in the quality of the fleet of vehicles and infrastructure facilities ensuring traffic in the country, qualitative changes in self-awareness and the resulting transport behavior of citizens, the stated goal of the Road Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation for 2018–2024 is impossible to achieve.