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Cognitive Neural Network Foresight to Forecast Scientific and Technological Development of the State

机译:认知神经网络前瞻性预测国家科技发展

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In the paper, we focus on the possibilities of neural network approach to assess the potential of Russia in achieving indicators of the sixth wave of innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop evolutionary algorithms and tools for neurofuzzy output of science-based assessments of the analysis and formation of scientific and technological areas and the List of critical technologies of the Russian Federation. In this paper, in the framework of the Foresight study, we used the results of expert seminars, as well as methods of remote study. Database mining tools are a class of hybrid systems of computational intelligence. The systems operate on the basis of the principles that are significantly different from data processing methods in conventional artificial neural networks relating to cognitive (“smart”) technology. Such hybrid neurofuzzy systems possess the most powerful cognitive capacity (modelling of sensation and perception; pattern recognition, learning and memorizing of patterns in order to identify the knowledge of the data). Such systems have wider range of application than other methods of synthesis of fuzzy sets and neural networks. The effect of identifying patterns in the neural network model provides comprehensive heterogeneous parameters that are not sufficient when applied separately. Trained mental model will calculate the weight factors and identify diagnostic decision rules “If, then”, in which certain indicators carry the weight load of the solution. The developed methods have found practical implementation in the development of the report (essay) in the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation within the framework of works on long-term forecast of the most important areas of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030.
机译:在本文中,我们将重点放在神经网络方法的可能性上,以评估俄罗斯在实现第六次创新浪潮中的潜力。这项研究的目的是开发用于神经模糊输出的进化算法和工具,以科学为基础的对科学技术领域的分析和形成以及俄罗斯联邦关键技术清单的评估。在本文中,我们在前瞻性研究的框架内,使用了专家研讨会的结果以及远程研究的方法。数据库挖掘工具是一类混合的计算智能系统。该系统基于与与认知(“智能”)技术有关的常规人工神经网络中的数据处理方法显着不同的原理进行操作。这样的混合神经模糊系统具有最强大的认知能力(感觉和知觉建模;模式识别,模式学习和记忆,以便识别数据知识)。与其他模糊集和神经网络综合方法相比,此类系统具有更广泛的应用范围。在神经网络模型中识别模式的效果提供了综合的异构参数,这些参数在单独应用时还不够。训练有素的心理模型将计算权重因子,并确定“如果……则”的诊断决策规则,其中某些指标承载了解决方案的权重负荷。在对俄罗斯最重要的科学和技术发展最重要领域进行长期预测的工作框架内,俄罗斯联邦教育和科学部在编写报告(论文)时发现了所开发的方法的实际实施到2030年为止的联邦。

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