Research on Evaluation and Prediction Method of Link Travel Time Based on Floating Car Data by Simulation

摘要

Using the floating car data obtained by simulation to carry out theoretical research on link travel time evaluation and prediction, it has the advantage of conveniently setting different situations and providing reference for practical applications. In this paper, we have acquired the floating car data based on microscopic simulation, and then the complex trapezoidal quadrature formula is used to obtain link travel time of a single vehicle. When setting different ratios of floating cars, the average link travel time is obtained by the mean-median method. The results show that the effect is better than the arithmetic average method, and the higher the ratio of floating cars, the higher the accuracy of evaluation. The markov model has been used to correct the gray prediction model, with that we establish travel time prediction model based on the grey markov chain. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy is high.