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Chinese Stock Price and Volatility Predictions with Multiple Technical Indicators

机译:具有多个技术指标的中国股票价格和波动率预测

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While a large number of studies have been reported in the literature with reference to the use of Regression model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models in predicting stock prices in western countries, the Chinese stock market is much less studied. Note that the latter is growing rapidly, will overtake USA one in 20 - 30 years time and thus be-comes a very important place for investors worldwide. In this paper, an attempt is made at predicting the Shanghai Composite Index returns and price volatility, on a daily and weekly basis. In the paper, two different types of prediction models, namely the Regression and Neural Network models are used for the prediction task and multiple technical indicators are included in the models as inputs. The performances of the two models are compared and evaluated in terms of di- rectional accuracy. Their performances are also rigorously compared in terms of economic criteria like annualized return rate (ARR) from simulated trading. In this paper, both trading with and without short selling has been consid- ered, and the results show in most cases, trading with short selling leads to higher profits. Also, both the cases with and without commission costs are discussed to show the effects of commission costs when the trading systems are in actual use.
机译:尽管在文献中已经报道了许多研究,这些研究都使用了回归模型和人工神经网络(ANN)模型来预测西方国家的股票价格,但对中国股票市场的研究却很少。请注意,后者正在迅速发展,将在20至30年的时间里超过美国,因此成为全球投资者非常重要的地方。在本文中,我们尝试每天和每周预测上证综合指数的回报和价格波动。在本文中,两种不同类型的预测模型,即回归模型和神经网络模型用于预测任务,模型中包含多个技术指标作为输入。比较两个模型的性能,并根据方向精度进行评估。还严格按照经济标准(如模拟交易的年化回报率(ARR))对它们的表现进行了比较。在本文中,考虑了有无卖空交易,结果表明,在大多数情况下,有空卖空交易可带来更高的利润。此外,讨论了有和没有佣金成本的情况,以显示在实际使用交易系统时佣金成本的影响。

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