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Conditionally Independent Multiresolution Gaussian Processes

机译:条件独立的多分辨率高斯过程

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The multiresolution Gaussian process (GP) has gained increasing attention as a viable approach towards improving the quality of approximations in GPs that scale well to large-scale data. Most of the current constructions assume full independence across resolutions. This assumption simplifies the inference, but it underestimates the uncertainties in transitioning from one resolution to another. This in turn results in models which are prone to overfitting in the sense of excessive sensitivity to the chosen resolution, and predictions which are non-smooth at the boundaries. Our contribution is a new construction which instead assumes conditional independence among GPs across resolutions. We show that relaxing the full independence assumption enables robustness against overfitting, and that it delivers predictions that are smooth at the boundaries. Our new model is compared against current state of the art on 2 synthetic and 9 real-world datasets. In most cases, our new conditionally independent construction performed favorably when compared against models based on the full independence assumption. In particular, it exhibits little to no signs of overfitting.
机译:作为提高GP近似值质量的可行方法,多分辨率高斯过程(GP)得到了越来越多的关注,这些GP很好地适应了大规模数据。当前大多数构造都假定各个决议完全独立。此假设简化了推论,但低估了从一种分辨率转换到另一种分辨率时的不确定性。反过来,这导致模型在对所选分辨率过于敏感的意义上容易过拟合,并且预测在边界处不平滑。我们的贡献是一种新的结构,它假设GP之间各决议之间有条件地独立。我们表明,放宽完全独立性的假设可以防止过度拟合的鲁棒性,并且可以提供在边界处平滑的预测。我们的新模型在2个合成数据集和9个真实数据集上与当前技术水平进行了比较。在大多数情况下,与基于完全独立性假设的模型相比,我们的新的条件独立性构造表现良好。特别是,它几乎没有或完全没有过度拟合的迹象。

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