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FACTORS INFLUENCING THE OCCURRENCE OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN URBAN ROADS: A COMBINED GIS-EMPIRICAL BAYESIAN APPROACH

机译:影响城市道路交通事故发生的因素:一种结合GIS的经验贝叶斯方法

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The problem of urban road accidents in Colombia is remarkable and has a significant magnitude. For this reason, a technical study of this important public health scourge is important. The quantitative techniques employed are usually highly aggregated and will not correctly identify the determinant variables of the problem. This paper examines the relationship between urban road accidents and variables related to road infrastructure, environment, traffic volumes and traffic control. Some accident-prone sections in the city of Cartagena (Colombia) are specifically identified by the empirical Bayesian method based on GIS. A total of 69 accident-prone sections were identified in the city. It was evident that the marginal effect on the accident rate for motorcycles is well above that for cars and buses. Empirical evidence also showed that the sections located in commercial areas tend to have higher frequency of accidents due to the high presence of pedestrians.
机译:哥伦比亚的城市道路交通事故问题十分突出,而且规模很大。因此,对这一重要的公共卫生祸害进行技术研究很重要。所采用的定量技术通常是高度聚合的,无法正确识别问题的决定因素。本文研究了城市道路交通事故与道路基础设施,环境,交通量和交通控制相关变量之间的关系。通过基于GIS的经验贝叶斯方法,可以具体地识别卡塔赫纳(哥伦比亚)市中一些容易发生事故的区域。该市总共确定了69个容易发生事故的路段。显然,摩托车对事故率的边际影响远高于汽车和公共汽车。经验证据还表明,由于行人的大量出现,位于商业区的路段往往发生事故的频率更高。

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