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Impact of Climate Change on the Irrigation Water Requirement in Northern Taiwan

机译:气候变化对台湾北部灌溉水需求的影响

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The requirement for irrigation water would be affected by the variation of meteorological effects under the conditions of climate change, and irrigation water will always be the major portion of the water consumption in Taiwan. This study tries to assess the impact on irrigation water by climate change in Taoyuan in northern Taiwan. Projected rainfall and temperature during 2046–2065 are adopted from five downscaled general circulation models. The future evapotranspiration is derived from the Hamon method and corrected with the quadrant transformation method. Based on the projections and a water balance model in paddy fields, the future crop water requirement, effective rainfall and the demand for water for irrigation can be calculated. A comparison between the present (2004–2011) and the future (2046–2065) clearly shows that climate change would lead both rainfall and the temperature to rise; this would cause effective rainfall and crop water requirement to increase during cropping seasons in the future. Overall, growing effective rainfall neutralizes increasing crop water requirement, the difference of average irrigation water requirement between the present and future is insignificant (2.5%). However, based on a five year return period, the future irrigation requirement is 7.1% more than the present in the first cropping season, but it is insignificantly less (2.1%) than the present in the second cropping season.
机译:在气候变化的条件下,灌溉水的需求会受到气象效应变化的影响,并且灌溉水将永远是台湾用水量的主要部分。本研究试图评估台湾北部桃园地区气候变化对灌溉水的影响。五个缩小的总体循环模型采用了2046-2065年的预计降雨量和温度。未来的蒸散发源于Hamon方法,并用象限变换方法进行了校正。基于这些预测和稻田的水平衡模型,可以计算出未来的作物需水量,有效降雨量和灌溉用水量。当前(2004-2011年)和未来(2046-2065年)之间的比较清楚地表明,气候变化将导致降雨和温度升高;这将导致未来作物季节的有效降雨和作物需水量增加。总体而言,有效降雨的增加抵消了作物需水量的增加,目前和未来之间的平均灌溉需水量差异不大(<2.5%)。但是,基于五年的返还期,未来的灌溉需求比第一季的当前灌溉需求高出7.1%,但比第二季的当前灌溉需求低得多(2.1%)。

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