Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina

摘要

In the past 20 years, extreme weather events (atypical variations of temperature and precipitation in space and time) have increased in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the consequences being significant material damage and decreased crop yields. The aims of the current paper were to investigate the impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize grown in one of the most important agricultural regions of the country. It used the results of projections of the EBU-POM regional climate model (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and A1B > carbon dioxide (CO2), A2 > CO2 for the 2020s (2010–2039), the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099), and it compared them with the reference period (1961–1990) using measured and modelled data. AquaCrop was calibrated for the study area using data from experimental studies. The model was applied in simulations of future cultivation scenarios considering different irrigation regimes and variations in precipitation, temperature, CO2 concentration and sowing date. The results of simulations indicate that in the 2020s, there will be no significant changes in irrigation needs and yield due to the earlier sowing date and overall shifting of the growing season early in spring. A slightly larger negative impact of climate change will occur by the 2050s and a larger one by the 2080s due to a reduction in precipitation in the summer months. Compared with the reference period, in the 2080s, irrigation requirements are expected to increase by almost 100% (from 100 to 200 mm) and to provide up to 30% greater yield. In the future, water productivity of maize will remain high and will be even greater than current levels for both rainfed and irrigated cultivation due to anticipation and shortening of the growing season, reduction in crop evapotranspiration and increase in CO2 concentration. Due to an increase in precipitation in early spring and its reduction in the May–June period, the blue-to-green water ratio will increase in the future with positive environmental connotations. The productive use of blue water will also increase.