Risk Assessment on Dietary Exposure to Aflatoxin B₁ in Post-Harvest Peanuts in the Yangtze River Ecological Region

摘要

Based on the 2983 peanut samples from 122 counties in six provinces of China’s Yangtze River ecological region collected between 2009–2014, along with the dietary consumption data in Chinese resident nutrition and health survey reports from 2002 and 2004, dietary aflatoxin exposure and percentiles in the corresponding statistics were calculated by non-parametric probability assessment, Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap sampling methods. Average climatic conditions in the Yangtze River ecological region were calculated based on the data from 118 weather stations via the Thiessen polygon method. The survey results found that the aflatoxin contamination of peanuts was significantly high in 2013. The determination coefficient (R2) of multiple regression reflected by the aflatoxin B₁ content with average precipitation and mean temperature in different periods showed that climatic conditions one month before harvest had the strongest impact on aflatoxin B₁ contamination, and that Hunan and Jiangxi provinces were greatly influenced. The simulated mean aflatoxin B₁ intake from peanuts at the mean peanut consumption level was 0.777–0.790 and 0.343–0.349 ng/(kg·d) for children aged 2–6 and standard adults respectively. Moreover, the evaluated cancer risks were 0.024 and 0.011/(100,000 persons·year) respectively, generally less than China’s current liver cancer incidence of 24.6 cases/(100,000 persons·year). In general, the dietary risk caused by peanut production and harvest was low. Further studies would focus on the impacts of peanut circulation and storage on aflatoxin B₁ contamination risk assessment in order to protect peanut consumers’ safety and boost international trade.