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首页> 外文期刊>The Cryosphere >Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high spatial resolution for an Arctic region with complex terrain
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Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high spatial resolution for an Arctic region with complex terrain

机译:在具有复杂地形的北极地区,以高空间分辨率模拟和绘制气候变化对多年冻土的影响

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Most spatial modelling of climate change impacts on permafrost has beenconducted at half-degree latitude/longitude or coarser spatial resolution. Atsuch coarse resolution, topographic effects on insolation cannot beconsidered accurately and the results are not suitable for land-use planningand ecological assessment. Here we mapped climate change impacts onpermafrost from 1968 to 2100 at 10 m resolution using a process-based modelfor Ivvavik National Park, an Arctic region with complex terrain in northernYukon, Canada. Soil and drainage conditions were defined based on ecosystemtypes, which were mapped using SPOT imagery. Leaf area indices were mappedusing Landsat imagery and the ecosystem map. Climate distribution wasestimated based on elevation and station observations, and the effects oftopography on insolation were calculated based on slope, aspect and viewshed.To reduce computation time, we clustered climate distribution and topographiceffects on insolation into discrete types. The modelled active-layerthickness and permafrost distribution were comparable with field observationsand other studies. The map portrayed large variations in active-layerthickness, with ecosystem types being the most important controllingvariable, followed by climate, including topographic effects on insolation.The results show deepening in active-layer thickness and progressivedegradation of permafrost, although permafrost will persist in most of thepark during the 21st century. This study also shows that ground conditions and climate scenarios are the major sources of uncertainty forhigh-resolution permafrost mapping.
机译:气候变化对多年冻土影响的大多数空间模型都是在半度纬度/经度或更粗的空间分辨率下进行的。在这样粗略的分辨率下,无法准确考虑地形对日照的影响,其结果不适合土地利用规划和生态评估。在这里,我们使用Ivvavik国家公园(加拿大北部育空地区地形复杂的北极地区)基于过程的模型,绘制了1968年至2100年气候变化对多年冻土的影响,分辨率为10 m。根据生态系统类型定义了土壤和排水条件,并使用SPOT影像对其进行了制图。叶面积指数使用Landsat影像和生态系统地图绘制。根据海拔和站位观测值估算气候分布,并根据坡度,坡向和视域来计算地形对日照的影响。为了减少计算时间,我们将气候分布和地形对日照的影响归纳为离散类型。模拟的活动层厚度和多年冻土分布与现场观测和其他研究相当。该图描绘了活动层厚度的巨大变化,其中生态系统类型是最重要的控制变量,其次是气候,包括日照的地形影响。结果表明,尽管多年冻土层在大多数地区将持续存在,但活动层厚度不断加深,多年冻土逐渐退化。 21世纪的公园。这项研究还表明,地面条件和气候情景是高分辨率多年冻土制图不确定性的主要来源。

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