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Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation

机译:宏观经济变量和股票市场回报:全面的信息最大似然估计

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This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns using monthly data over period January 1992 to December, 2008. Macroeconomic variables used in this study are consumer price index (as a proxy for inflation), crude oil price, exchange rate and 91 day Treasury bill rate (as a proxy for interest rate). Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure was used in establishing the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns in Ghana. The empirical results reveal that there is a significant relationship between stock market returns and three macroeconomic variables; consumer price index (inflation rate), exchange rate and Treasury bill rate seem to affect stock market returns. Consumer price index (Inflation rate) had a positive significant effect, while exchange rate and Treasury bill rate had negative significant influence on stock market returns. On the other hand, crude oil prices do not appear to have any significant effect on stock returns. The results may provide some insight to corporate managers, investors and policy makers. Key words: stock market returns, inflation rate, crude oil price, exchange rate, interest rate, Ghana
机译:本研究使用1992年1月至2008年12月期间的月度数据检验了宏观经济变量与股票市场回报之间的关系。本研究中使用的宏观经济变量是消费者价格指数(代表通货膨胀),原油价格,汇率和91日国库券利率(作为利率的代理)。全面信息最大似然估计程序用于建立加纳的宏观经济变量与股票市场回报之间的关系。实证结果表明,股票市场收益与三个宏观经济变量之间存在显着的关系。消费者物价指数(通货膨胀率),汇率和国库券利率似乎会影响股市收益。消费物价指数(通货膨胀率)具有正向显着影响,而汇率和国库券利率对股票市场收益具有负向显着影响。另一方面,原油价格似乎对存货收益没有重大影响。结果可能为公司经理,投资者和决策者提供一些见识。关键词:股市收益率,通胀率,原油价格,汇率,利率,加纳

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