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Examining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Morocco.

机译:研究摩洛哥的宏观经济变量与股票市场回报之间的关系。

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摘要

The purpose of this quantitative research was to examine the degree of association between stock returns in Morocco and selected economic variables including Gross Domestic Product, interest rate, inflation rate, stock returns in the United States, and stock returns in Europe. The proposed study used the multifactor model to ascertain the degree of correlation between stock returns in Morocco and each economic variable, and stock returns and domestic factors (GDP, interest rate, and inflation rate) grouped together, and stock returns and global factors (stock returns in the United States and Europe) grouped collectively. The problem addressed in this study was that international investors, policy makers, and institutional investors in Morocco do not have significant insights into the relationship between stock returns in Morocco and economic activity and the degree of integration of the Moroccan equity market with global markets. This research used a non-experimental correlational design to study the relationship between stock returns of all publicly traded companies on the Moroccan stock market between 2000 and 2014 and the selected macroeconomic variables. The data set was analyzed using correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. It was found that a significant long run positive relationship existed between stock returns in Morocco and GDP growth rate and inflation rate. No statistically significant relationship was found between stock returns in Morocco and interest rate, stock returns in the U.S., and stock returns in Europe. Collectively domestic variables accounted for 6% of the variation in stock returns (R2= 0.06, F(3,166) = 3.501, p < 0.05). Global factors accounted for 0.7% on variation in stock returns and were statistically insignificant (R 2 = 0.007, F(2,167) = 0.620, p > 0.05). Results from combined domestic and global factors indicated a significant regression model that could explain 7% of the total variation in stock returns in Morocco (R2= 0.07, F(5,164) = 2.479; p < 0.05). Recommendations for future research included the inclusion of more explanatory variables, both domestic and global, in the analysis of stock returns and the study of the relationship between the selected economic variables and sector-specific indices.
机译:这项定量研究的目的是检验摩洛哥的股票收益与选定的经济变量之间的关联度,这些经济变量包括国内生产总值,利率,通货膨胀率,美国的股票收益和欧洲的股票收益。拟议的研究使用多因素模型来确定摩洛哥的股票收益率与每个经济变量之间的相关程度,以及股票收益率和国内因素(GDP,利率和通货膨胀率)组合在一起的情况,以及股票收益率和全球因素(股票价格) (在美国和欧洲))归为一体。这项研究解决的问题是,摩洛哥的国际投资者,政策制定者和机构投资者对摩洛哥的股票收益与经济活动以及摩洛哥股票市场与全球市场的整合程度之间的关系没有深刻的了解。这项研究使用非实验相关设计来​​研究2000年至2014年摩洛哥股票市场上所有公开交易公司的股票收益与所选宏观经济变量之间的关系。使用相关分析和多元回归分析对数据集进行分析。研究发现,摩洛哥的股票收益与国内生产总值增长率和通货膨胀率之间存在长期的显着正相关关系。在摩洛哥的股票收益率与利率,美国的股票收益率和欧洲的股票收益率之间,在统计上没有发现显着的关系。总的来说,国内变量占股票回报率变化的6%(R2 = 0.06,F(3,166)= 3.501,p <0.05)。全球因素占股票收益变化的0.7%,在统计上不显着(R 2 = 0.007,F(2,167)= 0.620,p> 0.05)。来自国内和全球因素综合的结果表明,有一个显着的回归模型可以解释摩洛哥股票收益总额变化的7%(R2 = 0.07,F(5,164)= 2.479; p <0.05)。对未来研究的建议包括在股票收益分析中以及在研究选定的经济变量与特定行业指数之间的关系时,包括更多的国内和全球解释变量。

著录项

  • 作者

    Allam, Khalid.;

  • 作者单位

    Northcentral University.;

  • 授予单位 Northcentral University.;
  • 学科 Finance.;Economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 160 p.
  • 总页数 160
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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