Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

摘要

Regional climate model simulations have routinely been applied to assesschanges in precipitation extremes at daily time steps. However, shortersub-daily extremes have not received as much attention. This is likelybecause of the limited availability of high temporal resolution data, bothfor observations and for model outputs. Here, summertime depth durationfrequencies of a subset of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble areevaluated with observations for several European countries for durations of1 to 12 h. Most of the model simulations strongly underestimate 10-yeardepths for durations up to a few hours but perform better at longerdurations. The spatial patterns over Germany are reproduced at least partlyat a 12 h duration, but all models fail at shorter durations.Projected changes are assessed by relating relative depth changes to meantemperature changes. A strong relationship with temperature is found acrossdifferent subregions of Europe, emission scenarios and future time periods.However, the scaling varies considerably between different combinations ofglobal and regional climate models, with a spread in scaling of around1–10 % K?1 at a 12 h duration and generally higher values at shorter durations.