Formalized Estimation of Мmax and of Strong Earthquake Recurrence

摘要

In estimating seismic hazard based on the Gutenberg-Richter law, the particular attention shall be paid to nonlinearity of the curve and justification of its restriction on the right or to unrestricted extrapolation to the region of rare events [1, 2]. These issues have been addressed based on the benchmarking study of recurrence curves of the strongest earthquakes, with the forecasting limits of the recurrence curves calculated based on the model that reflects the discrete properties of the block hierarchical structure of the earth crust, with the account of deformation conditions, possible changes in the deformation velocity, elastic limit and type of fracture. The study allowed to determine the geodynamic, geotechnical and seismotectonic factors, which influence on the curve’s shape and level, and to specify their parameters, which estimate the value and the recurrence of Мmax.