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Global Warming Effects on Irrigation Development and Crop Production: A World-Wide View

机译:全球变暖对灌溉发展和作物生产的影响:全世界的看法

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Despite the enormous advances in our ability to understand, interpret and ultimately manage the natural world, we have reached the 21st century in awesome ignorance of what is likely to unfold in terms of both the natural changes and the human activities that affect the environment and the responses of the Earth to those stimuli. One certain fact is that the planet will be subjected to pressures hitherto unprecedented in its recent evolutionary history. The “tomorrow’s world” will not simply be an inflated version of the “today’s world”, with more people, more energy consumption and more industry, rather it will be qualitatively different from today in at least three important respects. First, new technology will transform the relationship between man and the natural world. An example is the gradual transition from agriculture that is heavily dependent on chemicals to one that is essentially biologically intensive through the application of bio-technologies. Consequently, the release of bio-engineered organisms is likely to pose new kinds of risks if the development and use of such organisms are not carefully controlled. Second, society will be moving beyond the era of localized environmental problems. What were once local incidents of natural resource impairment shared throughout a common watershed or basin, now involve many neighboring countries. What were once acute, short-lived episodes of reversible damage now affect many generations. What were once straightforward questions of conservation versus development now reflect more complex linkages. The third major change refers to climate variations. It is nowadays widely accepted that the increasing concentration of the so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is altering the Earth’s radiation balance and causing the temperature to rise. This process in turn provides the context for a chain of events which leads to changes in the different components of the hydrological cycle, such as evapotranspiration rate, intensity and frequency of precipitation, river flows, soil moisture and groundwater recharge. Mankind is expected to respond to these effects by taking adaptive measures including changing patterns of land use, adopting new strategies for soil and water management and looking for non-conventional water resources (e.g. saline/brackish waters, desalinated water, and treated wastewater). All these problems will become more pronounced in the years to come, as society enters an era of increasingly complex paths towards the global economy. In this context, engineers and decision-makers need to systematically review planning principles, design criteria, operating rules, contingency plans and management policies for new infra-structures. In relation to these issues and based on available information, this report gives an overview of current and future (time horizon 2025) irrigation and food production development around the world. Moreover, the paper analyses the results of the most recent and advanced General Circulation Models for assessing the hydrological impacts of climate variability on crop requirements, water availability and the planning and design process of irrigation systems. Finally, a five-step planning and design procedure is proposed that is able to integrate, within the development process, the hydrological consequences of climate change. For researchers interested in irrigation and drainage and in crop production under changing climate conditions, references have been included, under developments in irrigation section on Page 3. Many climate action plans developed by few cities, states and various countries are cited for policy makers to follow or to make a note off. Few citations are also included in the end to educate every one of us, who are not familiar with the scientific work of our colleagues, related to global warming. The colleagues are from different areas, physics, mathematics, agricultural engineering, crop scientists and policy makers in Unite
机译:尽管我们在理解,解释和最终管理自然世界的能力方面已取得了巨大进步,但我们已进入21世纪,对自然变化以及影响环境和人类活动的人类活动可能会发生的事情的无知使然。地球对那些刺激的反应。一个确定的事实是,行星将承受其最近的进化史上前所未有的压力。 “明天的世界”将不仅仅是“今天的世界”的膨胀版本,它将拥有更多的人,更多的能源消耗和更多的工业,而且在质量上至少在三个重要方面与今天不同。首先,新技术将改变人与自然世界之间的关系。一个例子是,从高度依赖化学品的农业逐渐过渡到通过应用生物技术从本质上讲是生物密集型的农业。因此,如果不仔细控制生物工程有机体的开发和使用,其释放可能会带来新的风险。第二,社会将超越局部环境问题的时代。曾经在整个流域或流域共享的当地自然资源减损事件,如今已涉及许多邻国。曾经是可逆性损害的短暂,短暂的发作,如今已影响了几代人。关于保护与发展的直截了当的问题现在反映了更复杂的联系。第三个主要变化是气候变化。如今,人们普遍接受的是,大气中所谓温室气体的浓度不断增加,正在改变地球的辐射平衡并导致温度升高。这个过程又为一系列事件提供了背景,这些事件导致水文循环的不同组成部分发生变化,例如蒸散速率,降水强度和频率,河流流量,土壤湿度和地下水补给。预计人类将通过采取适应性措施来应对这些影响,包括改变土地使用方式,采用新的土壤和水管理策略以及寻找非常规水资源(例如盐水/咸水,淡化水和经过处理的废水)。随着社会进入通往全球经济的日益复杂之路的时代,所有这些问题将在未来几年变得更加明显。在这种情况下,工程师和决策者需要系统地审查新基础设施的规划原则,设计标准,操作规则,应急计划和管理政策。关于这些问题,并根据现有信息,本报告概述了全球当前和未来(到2025年的时间)灌溉和粮食生产发展。此外,本文分析了最新和最先进的通用循环模型的结果,该模型用于评估气候变化对作物需求,水的可获得性以及灌溉系统的规划和设计过程的水文影响。最后,提出了一个五步规划和设计程序,该程序能够在开发过程中整合气候变化的水文后果。对于对气候变化条件下的灌溉和排水以及作物生产感兴趣的研究人员,在第3页上的“灌溉领域”的发展部分中,已包括了参考文献。引述了少数城市,州和国家制定的许多气候行动计划,供政策制定者遵循或记下笔记。最后,几乎没有引用文献来教育我们每个不熟悉同事与全球变暖有关的科学工作的人。同事来自Unite的不同领域,包括物理学,数学,农业工程,作物科学家和政策制定者

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