A Comparison of Two Land Use Simulation Models under the RCP4.5 Scenario in China

摘要

The land use simulation model is an important tool to analyze the land use/land cover change (LUCC), which plays a key role in influencing the global warming. However, there have been very few global LUCC simulation models, especially the models that can be used to analyze the interaction among the socioeconomic development, climate change, and LUCC. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the GTAP-AEZ model are two models that take account of the influence of social economy and climate change at the global scale, but they may have some parameter errors due to the rough parameter setting. This study aims to compare the simulation results obtained with the GCAM model and GTAP-AEZ model and optimize their parameters according to the specific conditions of China. First, we simulated the land use structure in China in 2010 with the two models and compared the simulation results with the real one. Second, we calibrated these parameters of models according to the China’s national conditions and implemented the simulation again. The result indicates that the calibrated GCAM can provide more accurate simulation result of land use, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning and policy formulation to mitigate the climate change in China.