Simulation and projection of extreme climate events in China under RCP4.5 scenario

摘要

Investigating changes in extreme precipitation is critical for flood management and risk assessment in the context of climate change. Based on China's Ground Precipitation 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1M) provided by ISI-MIP, eight extreme climate event indexes, which are Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, R10mm, R20mm, CDD, CWD, and R95pTOT, were calculated. This research uses two principles of minimum relative error of mean value and best fit probability distribution to select relative optimal climate models. The results show that the five selected climate models have a better performance in reproducing CDD, R10, RX5D, and SDII, so this research only selected the relative optimal climate models for these four indexes to discuss the future change of extreme precipitation in China; besides, the intensity of precipitation event will be stronger and bigger risk of flood will occur in Huang-huai-hai River Basin in the future. This research is essential for water resources research and the development of strategies of China to adapt to climate change.