To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMAmodel is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. Theproposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it candescribe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily. Based onthe HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation andthe incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. In the county-level analysis, we findthat after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA(0,0)×(1,0)12model provides anadequate fit to the data.
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