Monte Carlo Simulation in the Assessment ofEconomic-financial Uncertainties of aManufacturing Industry

摘要

For accurate decisions in capital investments assessments into industrial projects, it is recommended to consider the uncertainties intrinsic to the capital budget. In this way, our objective was to assess the economic and financial viability of a manufacturing industry, based on the uncertainty of the elements that make up the cash flow of this industry that performs the sawing of Pinus sp. logs, located in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. As a premise, the deterministic discounted cash flow was constructed; therefore, probability distributions were assigned to the input variables of the mathematical model, for the stochastic values of the quantitative methods, traditionally employed in investment analysis, through Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the investment project is economically viable; in addition, it presented an economic-financial risk that can be considered low.