蒙特卡洛模拟法在项目评估风险分析中的应用--以青岛海信房地产目标成本测算工具表为例

摘要

在房地产投资项目可行性研究中，选取正确合理的方法估算风险因素至关重要。概述了蒙特卡洛模拟法与敏感性分析的联系与区别，并以青岛海信房地产公司目标成本测算工具表为例，证明了蒙特卡洛模拟法在项目风险评估中具有较高的实践价值。%For the feasibility study of real estate investment projects,how to evaluate the risk factors reasonably and exactly is essential.This article summarized the connection and difference between the Monte-Carlo method and sensitivity analysis,and then we validated the practical significance of Monte-Carlo method with a case study of Hisense Real Estate Company’s target cost calculation table.