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Seasonal climate impacts on the grape harvest date in Burgundy (France)

机译:季节气候对勃艮第(法国)葡萄收获日期的影响

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In this study, we analyse the climatic impacts on the grape harvest date(GHD) in Burgundy (France) on interannual and decadal time scales. We affirmthat the GHD is mainly influenced by the local April-to-August temperature(AAT) and provide the spatial expansion of this relationship. The spatialcorrelation pattern yields similar results for the instrumental andpre-instrumental period, indicating the consistency of the pre-instrumentalfield data with the instrumental GHD-spring/summer relationship. We find apreviously undocumented second climate impact on the GHD. The wintertemperature is significantly correlated with the GHD ondecadal-to-multidecadal time scales and affects the GHD independently of theAAT. A multiple linear regression model, with AAT and decadal wintertemperature as predictors, was found to be the best model to describe the GHDtime series for the instrumental period. Stability tests of the correlationsover time yield that both impacts on the GHD, AAT and decadal wintertemperature, strengthen during the instrumental period. Using partialcorrelation analysis, we demonstrate that this is partly caused by a changein the winter–spring/summer temperature relationship. Summarising, the GHD iswell suited to reconstruct interannual variations of the spring/summertemperature over large parts of Europe, even if the changingwinter–spring/summer relation might affect the reconstruction in a secondorder. For decadal time scales, the December-to-August temperature shows thestrongest relationship to the GHD and, therefore, proposes that the GHD can beused for European temperature reconstructions beyond the spring/summerseason. Finally, we argue that our findings regarding the changedwinter–spring/summer relation are relevant for physical and biologicalsystems in several ways and should be analysed by other long-term proxy dataand available model simulations.
机译:在这项研究中,我们分析了勃艮第(法国)葡萄收获日期(GHD)在年际和年代际尺度上的气候影响。我们确认GHD主要受当地4月至8月温度(AAT)的影响,并提供了这种关系的空间扩展。在仪器和仪器前时期,空间相关模式产生相似的结果,表明仪器前场数据与仪器GHD-弹簧/夏季关系的一致性。我们发现以前没有记载的第二气候对GHD的影响。冬季温度与GHD年代际到多十年时间尺度显着相关,并独立于AAT影响GHD。发现以AAT和年代际冬季温度为预测因子的多元线性回归模型是描述仪器期GHDtime序列的最佳模型。在仪器使用期间,对GHD,AAT和年代际冬季温度都产生影响的随时间变化的相关性的稳定性测试会加强。使用偏相关分析,我们证明这部分是由冬春季/夏季温度关系的变化引起的。概括地说,GHD非常适合重建欧洲大部分地区的春季/夏季温度的年际变化,即使不断变化的冬季-春季/夏季关系可能会影响二阶重建也是如此。对于年代际时间尺度,12月至8月的温度与GHD的关系最密切,因此建议将GHD用于春季/夏季以外的欧洲温度重建。最后,我们认为,关于改变的冬春夏关系的发现在许多方面都与物理和生物系统有关,应该用其他长期代理数据和可用的模型模拟来分析。

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