Economy

摘要

Forecasts of the world economic outlook continue to be revised downwards after global economic slowdown, caused by the problems encountered in the US sub-prime mortgage market. Although output and sales remained strong throughout 2007, the sound expansion appears to have come to an end and the UK economy is now faced with a dual challenge: rising prices of energy and raw materials together with a financial crisis, with difficult credit conditions, leading to low economy-wide demand. UK GDP economic growth rose by 3.1% during 2007, the fastest rate since 2004, and growth was maintained throughout the year with annualised GDP growth during the third and fourth quarters of 3.3% and 2.9% respectively. However, 2008 has begun to see the impact of the economic slowdown with a deterioration in consumer and business sentiment, combined with rising prices of food and energy, impacting upon real disposable income. GDP growth slowed to 2.5% on an annualised basis during the first quarter of 2008 and growth is expected to diminish further throughout the year. Forecasts of growth for 2008 and 2009 have been revised down by all major macroeconomic forecasters, with growth in 2009 now expected to be worse than during 2008 in sharp contrast to forecasts six months ago. GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.7% during 2008. Furthermore, it is expected to slow further during 2009, to 1.2% before starting to recover in 2010 with growth of 1.8%.