User Behavior Prediction of Social Hotspots Based on Multimessage Interaction and Neural Network

摘要

In network public-opinion analysis, the diversity of messages under social hot topics plays an important role in user participation behavior. Considering the interactions among multiple messages and the complex user behaviors, this article proposes a prediction model of user participation behavior during multiple messaging of hot social topics. First, considering the influence of multimessage interaction on user participation behavior, a multimessage interaction influence-driving mechanism was proposed to predict user participation behavior more accurately. Second, in the view of the behavioral complexity of users engaging in multimessage hotspots and the simple structure of backpropagation (BP) neural networks (which can map complex nonlinear relationships), this study proposes a user participant behavior prediction model of social hotspots based on a multimessage interaction-driving mechanism and the BP neural network. Finally, the multimessage interaction has an iterative guiding effect on user behavior, which easily causes overfitting of the BP neural network. To avoid this problem, the traditional BP neural network is optimized by a simulated annealing algorithm to further improve the prediction accuracy. In evaluation experiments, the model not only predicted the user participation behavior in actual situations of multimessage interaction but also further quantified the correlations among multiple messages on hot topics.