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StateSim: lessons learned from 20 years of a country modeling and simulation toolset

机译:Solysim:从20年的国家建模和仿真工具集中汲取的经验教训

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A holy grail for military, diplomatic, and intelligence analysis is a valid set of software agent models that act as the desired ethno-political factions so that one can test the effects of alternative courses of action in different countries. This article explains StateSim, a country modeling approach that synthesizes best-of-breed theories from across the social sciences and that has helped numerous organizations over 20 years to study insurgents, gray zone actors, and other societal instabilities. The country modeling literature is summarized (Sect. 1.1) and synthetic inquiry is contrasted with scientific inquiry (Sects. 1.2 and 2). Section 2 also explains many fielded StateSim applications and 100s of past acceptability tests and validity assessments. Section 3 then describes how users now construct and run 'first pass' country models within hours due to the StateSim Generator, while Sect. 4 offers two country analyses that illustrate this approach. The conclusions explain lessons learned.
机译:军事,外交和智能分析的圣杯是一套有效的软件代理模型,充当所需的民族政治派系,以便可以测试不同国家的替代行动课程的影响。本文阐述了一个国家建模方法,综合来自社会科学的最佳理论,并帮助众多组织20多年来研究叛乱分子,灰色区域演员和其他社会稳定性。综述了国家建模文献(第1.1)和综合查询与科学探究形成鲜明对比(第1.2和2)。第2节还解释了许多现场状态应用和100多个过去可接受性测试和有效性评估。然后,第3节描述了用户现在在不同状态的生成器中构建和运行“第一传递”国家模型的用户,而SECT。 4提供了两个国家分析,说明了这种方法。结论解释了学习的经验教训。

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