Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in asymmetric vector autoregressive models

摘要

The estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is sensitive to model misspecifications, resulting to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This article extends the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates, a robustness procedure in cross-section data, to a vector time-series that is estimated using a large number of asymmetric VAR models. The proposed procedure was applied to simulated data from various forms of model misspecifications. The results of the simulation suggest that, under misspecification problems, particularly if an important variable andmoving average (MA) terms were omitted, the proposed procedure gives robust results and better forecasts than the automatically selected equal lag-length VAR model.