Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part Ⅰ: Quantifying the impact of major sectors in 2005

摘要

Combustion emissions adversely impact air quality and human health. A multiscale air quality model is applied to assess the health impacts of major emissions sectors in United States. Emissions are classified according to six different sources: electric power generation, industry, commercial and residential sources, road transportation, marine transportation and rail transportation. Epidemiological evidence is used to relate long-term population exposure to sector-induced changes in the concentrations of PM_(2.5) and ozone to incidences of premature death. Total combustion emissions in the U.S. account for about 200,000 (90% CI: 90,000-362,000) premature deaths per year in the U.S. due to changes in PM_(2.5) concentrations, and about 10,000 (90% CI: -1000 to 21,000) deaths due to changes in ozone concentrations. The largest contributors for both pollutant-related mortalities are road transportation, causing ～53,000 (90% CI: 24,000-95,000) PM_(2.5)-relat.ed deaths and ～5000 (90% CI: -900 to 11,000) ozone-related early deaths per year, and power generation, causing ～52,000 (90% CI: 23,000-94,000) PM_(2.5)-related and ～2000 (90% CI: -300 to 4000) ozone-related premature mortalities per year. Industrial emissions contribute to -41,000 (90% CI: 18,000-74,000) early deaths from PM_(2.5) and ～2000 (90% CI: 0 -4000) early deaths from ozone. The results are indicative of the extent to which policy measures could be undertaken in order to mitigate the impact of specific emissions from different sectors-in particular black carbon emissions from road transportation and sulfur dioxide emissions from power generation.