A new modeling approach for assessing the contribution of industrial and traffic emissions to ambient NO_X concentrations

摘要

The Optimized Dispersion Model (ODM) is uniquely capable of incorporating emission estimates, ambient air quality monitoring data and meteorology to provide reliable high-resolution (in both time and space) air quality estimates using non-linear regression. However, it was so far not capable of describing the effects of emissions from elevated sources. We formulated an additional term to extend the ODM such that these sources can be accounted for, and implemented it in modeling the fine spatiotemporal patterns of ambient NOx concentrations over the coastal plain of Israel. The diurnal and seasonal variation in the contribution of industry to the ambient NOx is presented, as well as its spatial features. Although industrial stacks are responsible for 88% of the NOx emissions in the study area, their contribution to ambient NOx levels is generally about 2% with a maximal upper bound of 27%. Meteorology has a major role in this source allocation, with the highest impact of industry in the summer months, when the wind is blowing inland past the coastal stacks and vertical mixing is substantial. The new Optimized Dispersion Model (ODM) out-performs both Inverse-Distance-Weighing (IDW) interpolation and a previous ODM version in predicting ambient NOx concentrations. The performance of the new model is thoroughly assessed.