Dangerous Brinkmanship: Close Military Encounters Between Russia and the West in 2014

摘要

This policy brief from the European Leadership Network summarizes and assesses nearly 40 incidents that have occurred over the past eight months involving Russian and Western military forces and security agencies and provides recommendations to reduce tensions and the potential for escalation.The brief states that the incidents "add up to a highly disturbing picture" of Russian military activity "on a regular basis over a very wide geographic area."The authors identify three incidents in particular that "carried a high probability of causing casualties or direct military confrontation": a near collision between a civilian airliner and Russian surveillance plane, Russia's abduction of an Estonian intelligence officer, and a major Swedish anti-submarine operation. The brief expresses concern that although direct military confrontation has been averted, the current pattern of Russian aggressiveness and Western displays of resolve in response "increases the risk of unintended escalation and the danger of losing control of events."To avoid these outcomes, the authors say that Russia should "re-evaluate the costs and risks" of its current posture and that all sides should exhibit "military and political restraint" and "improve military-to-military communication and transparency."