Can Openness Mitigate the Effects of Weather Shocks? Evidence from India's Famine Era

摘要

In this paper we have conducted a preliminary analysis of the role played by openness to trade, brought about by railroads, in mitigating the effects of agricultural productivity shocks on famine in colonial-era India. The results of our analysis suggest that rainfall shortages had large effects on famine intensity in an average district before it was penetrated by India's expanding railroad network. But the ability of rainfall shortages to cause famine disappeared almost completely after the arrival of railroads. This lines up with findings in Donaldson (2008), where railroads were seen to significantly reduce the exposure of agricultural prices and real incomes to rainfall shocks.