Beware a messy divorce

摘要

This month Scotland goes to the polls to decide its future inside or outside the UK. The decision, by Scotland's voters, has profound implications not only for this 300-year partnership but also for the UK's aerospace, aviation and defence sectors. The SNP's wish to move the location of the UK's Trident nuclear deterrent and close the Faslane base could result in an extremely costly and lengthy relocation process - and would blow a hole below the waterline of the UK's defence budget planning. In addition, the SNP has published its post-independence desires - which include 16-18 Eurofighter Typhoons, four C-130Js, four frigates and six army helicopters which will fragment the UK's shrinking combat power even further - just at a time when the need for a robust NATO capability has been at its highest since 1989. There are also questions over a small nation supporting and operating 18 Eurof ighters - when other countries such as South Africa have difficulty fielding the cheaper Gripen. In addition to the effect of independence on high-level organisations, such as the EU and NATO, there are also other aerospace implications. Complex multilateral agreements with international bodies such as ICAO, ITAR waivers, airworthiness (a Scottish CAA/AAIB?) and airspace (a divided Scottish/UK NATS?) will all need to be examined in detail, unpicked and then reapplied. Independence may affect the location of the UK's first spaceport (six of the current eight potential sites are in Scotland). At the national level there are industry bodies like the new ATI, Space UK and ADS to consider too. In short - should Scotland decide to go it alone, untangling these deep aerospace and aviation ties may prove more challenging than at first glance.