Identifying heterogeneous factors for driver injury severity variations in snow-related rural single-vehicle crashes

摘要

Snowy weather is consistently considered as a hazardous factor due to its potential leading to severe fatal crashes. A seven-year crash dataset including rural highway single vehicle crashes from 2010 to 2016 in Washington State is applied in the present study. Pseudo elasticity analysis is conducted to investigate significant impact factors and the temporal stability of model specifications is tested via a likelihood ratio test. The proposed model based on the seven-year dataset is able to capture the individual-specific heterogeneity across crash records for four significant factors, i.e., surface ice, male, and airbag combine deployment for minor injury, and male for serious injury and fatality. Their estimated parameters were found to be normal distribution instead of fixed value over the observations. Other significant impact factors with fixed effects are: inroad object, animal, overturn, surface wet, surface snow, unusual horizontal design, medium and high speed limits, driver age, impaired condition, no belt usage, vehicle type, airbag deployment. Especially, when compared to significant factors for crashes under other weather conditions, male indicator and impaired condition show significant higher effects in snow-related crashes. The results of temporal stability test show that the model specification is generally not temporally stable for driver injury severity model based on the years of crash data that were used, especially for longer period (more than 3-year dataset). Models that allow the explanatory variables to track temporal heterogeneity, are of great interest and can be explored in future research.