産業システムの発展シナリオとエネルギー消費: 中国江蘇省の鉄・セメント製造業を例に

摘要

本論文では、中国・江蘇省を取り上げ、この地域のエネルギー強度の構造およびその経年変化をまず分析した。また、この地域では、中国政府が設定する中期目標を大きく上回る形で経済活動、エネルギー消責が進みつつあることに言及した。これらの定量的な分析や情報、中国の国家政策の動向を踏まえて、特にエネルギー集約型産業においては、高効率技術システムの大規模普及、および都市系・産業系をつなぐ広域での資源循環モデルの追求は、今後短期的にも積極的に取り入れていくべきオプションである、ということを議論した。%In this paper, we discuss the energy consumption and intensity of the industrial sectors in Jiangsu province of China-the fastest economically developing region of the country-and argue possible strategies for energy efficient industrial activities. We first examine the historical trends of energy intensity associated with industrial sectors and study the factors affecting the evolution of these trends by applying decomposition analysis. We also argue that if business as usual (BAU) development patterns are continued, GDP growth and energy consumption will exceed possible pathways under current policy targets by 2020. Based upon these analyses as well s the Chinese government' s policy or ientation, we propose two options as alternative development scenarios for energy-intensive industries, particularly targeting the cement and steel production sectors. These options are: (1) diffusion of highly energy efficient technologies into these industries, and (2) promotion of a wide circular economy and industrial symbiosis. We discuss that these options can potentially lead to energy savings associated with industrial activities and can be a regional model for more sustainable industrial systems in China.