ピーク値·時間帯に着目した複数世帯合計電力需要の前日予測に関するー検討

摘要

民生部門におけるエネルギー利用の低炭素化·効率向上のため,太陽光発電や燃料電池等の分散型電源を集合住宅等の複数世帯において有効活用することが期待されている.そのためには電力·熱需要の変動特性を統計的に評価し，その結果に基づき需要の大きさや変化を適切に予測することが重要である.%We have developed a simplified day-ahead forecasting method of the aggregated electricity demand of several households. In this study, we propose the method to forecast the value of peak demand and the period of large demand including peak demand (peak period), which are forecasted based on the observed data of the selected past days. The past days selection based on the forecasted temperature would be practically useful. The difference in peak demand period is only a few hours among many days, while it occasionally occurs in the morning, suggesting that the method for forecasting the peak demand in the morning should be developed.