Regional Population Forecast and Analysis Based on Machine Learning Strategy

摘要

Regional population forecast and analysis is of essence to urban and regional planning, and a well-designed plan can effectively construct a sound national infrastructure and stabilize positive population growth. Traditionally, either urban or regional planning relies on the opinions of demographers in terms of how the population of a city or a region will grow. Multi-regional population forecast is currently possible, carried out mainly on the basis of the Interregional Cohort-Component model. While this model has its unique advantages, several demographic rates are determined based on the decisions made by primary planners. Hence, the only drawback for cohort-component type population forecasting is allowing the analyst to specify the demographic rates of the future, and it goes without saying that this tends to introduce a biased result in forecasting accuracy. To effectively avoid this problem, this work proposes a machine learning-based method to forecast multi-regional population growth objectively. Thus, this work, drawing upon the newly developed machine learning technology, attempts to analyze and forecast the population growth of major cities in Taiwan. By effectively using the advantage of the XGBoost algorithm, the evaluation of feature importance and the forecast of multi-regional population growth between the present and the near future can be observed objectively, and it can further provide an objective reference to the urban planning of regional population.