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3459 Modeling Emergency Department Length of Stay of Patients With Substance Use Disorder Using an Accelerated Failure Time Model

机译:3459使用加速失败时间模型对物质使用障碍患者的急诊科住院时间建模

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摘要

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) is one of the important indicators of quality and efficiency of ED service delivery and is reported to be both cause and result of ED crowding. Increased ED LOS is associated with ED crowding, increases service cost and sometimes poor patient outcome. Substance abuse is one of the major determinants of morbidity, mortality and healthcare needs. Substance abuse may confound the healthcare and service needs of patients in the ED irrespective of primary purpose of their ED visit and may lengthen the ED LOS. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics and of different patient-related activities such as screening brief intervention and referral to treatment (SBIRT) on the ED LOS of patients discharged from the ED with a diagnosis of substance abuse. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We conducted a retrospective data analysis of electronic health records. The study population included 26971 patients who visited our hospital ED between 2013 and 2017, had a history of substance abuse and were discharged from the ED. An accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used to analyze the influence of covariates on patient ED LOS. The predictor factors in the model included age, gender, ED arrival shift and weekday, diagnosis history of mental health and drug use, acuity triage level from 1 to 5, with 1 being worse severity, and whether any lab tests were ordered, SBIRT intervention and whether patient was homeless. The AFT model is an alternative to the Cox Proportional Hazard Ratio model, which directly models the log of ED LOS as a function of a vector of covariates. The model defines the increase or decrease in LOS with the changes in the covariate levels as an acceleration factor or time ratio (TR). RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The overall median ED LOS was 4 hours with IQR of 4.2 hours. The average age of the study population was 39.3 years, 58.6% of the patients were male and 57% where White; 63.4% had a history of drug use; 43% had a history of mental health issue, and 0.4% were homeless. In the analysis using the AFT model, increased age (a year increase, TR =1.01, p =0.008), female sex (TR=1.044, P<0.001), SBIRT (TR=1.525, P <0.001), history of mental health issue (TR=1.117, P<0.00), evening arrival (evening vs night, TR=1.04, p=0.006), history of drug use (drug vs alcohol only, TR=1.04, p=0.001), higher acuity (triage level 1 vs 5, TR=2.795, p <0.001) and homelessness (TR=1.073, P = 0.021) lengthened the ED LOS. In contrast, weekend arrival (TR=0.956, p=0.004) and day shift arrival (day vs night, TR=0.958, p=0.004) shortened the ED LOS. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: We identified gender, age, SBIRT, arrival shift, weekend arrival, mental health status, substance abuse, acuity level and homelessness to be significant predictor of ED LOS. The fact that SBIRT increased the LOS should be balanced with the advantages of engaging patients into substance use disorder treatment. Understanding the determinants of ED LOS in this population may provide useful information for physicians or patients to better anticipate an individual’s LOS and to help administrators plan the ED staffing and other resources mobilization.
机译:目标/特定目标:急诊科(ED)的住院时间(LOS)是ED服务质量和效率的重要指标之一,据报道是ED拥挤的原因和结果。 ED LOS的增加与ED拥挤有关,增加了服务成本,有时还会使患者预后不佳。药物滥用是发病率,死亡率和医疗保健需求的主要决定因素之一。无论急诊就诊的主要目的如何,药物滥用都可能使急诊科患者的医疗保健和服务需求感到困惑,并可能延长急诊科的服务水平。这项研究的目的是评估患者的人口统计学和临床​​特征以及与患者相关的不同活动(如筛查短暂干预和转诊治疗(SBIRT))对诊断为ED的ED患者的ED LOS的影响。滥用药物。方法/研究人群:我们对电子健康记录进行了回顾性数据分析。研究人群包括26971名患者,他们在2013年至2017年期间访问了我们的医院急诊科,曾有药物滥用史并已从急诊科出院。加速失败时间(AFT)模型用于分析协变量对患者ED LOS的影响。该模型中的预测因素包括年龄,性别,急诊进院班次和工作日,精神健康和药物使用的诊断史,敏锐度分类等级从1到5,其中1严重程度更差,是否需要进行任何实验室检查,SBIRT干预以及患者是否无家可归。 AFT模型是Cox比例风险比模型的替代方法,后者直接将ED LOS的对数建模为协变量向量的函数。该模型将LOS的增加或减少与协变量水平的变化定义为加速因子或时间比率(TR)。结果/预期结果:ED LOS的总中位数为4小时,IQR为4.2小时。研究人群的平均年龄为39.3岁,其中58.6%的患者为男性,其中57%为白人。 63.4%有吸毒史;有心理健康史的人占43%,无家可归的人占0.4%。在使用AFT模型进行的分析中,年龄增加(每年增加,TR = 1.01,p = 0.008),女性(TR = 1.044,P <0.001),SBIRT(TR = 1.525,P <0.001),精神病史健康问题(TR = 1.117,P <0.00),傍晚到达(晚上与晚上,TR = 1.04,p = 0.006),吸毒史(仅使用药物与酒精,TR = 1.04,p = 0.001),较高的敏锐度(分流等级1 vs 5,TR = 2.795,p <0.001)和无家可归者(TR = 1.073,P = 0.021)延长了ED LOS。相反,周末到来(TR = 0.956,p = 0.004)和白班到来(白天与黑夜,TR = 0.958,p = 0.004)缩短了ED LOS。影响的讨论/意义:我们确定性别,年龄,SBIRT,到来转变,周末到来,心理健康状况,药物滥用,敏锐度和无家可归是ED LOS的重要预测指标。 SBIRT增加LOS的事实应与使患者参与药物滥用障碍治疗的优势相平衡。了解该人群中ED LOS的决定因素可能为医生或患者提供有用的信息,以更好地预测个人的LOS,并帮助管理员计划ED的人员配备和其他资源动员。

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