Estimating the proportion of guilty suspects and posterior probability of guilt in lineups using signal-detection models

摘要

Posterior probability of guilt (PPG) as a function of base rate of guilt. Solid curve based on ’ = 1.8; dashed curve, ’ = 1.0 (  = 1 in both cases). Red lines at PPG = 0.95 (reasonable doubt) and 0.51 (probable cause)